Couldn't have said it better.
For the "hardcore" fan, it's possible. For the casual, I would say no.
As someone already stated, the Dangerous tour (at least in years past) has been on television multiple times throughout the years and it is the one that most people are familiar with whether they are a "die hard" or not. Even those that aren't really fans, they have seen the footage at least at some point in their lifetime. The History tour...not so much. At least here in the states...I can't tell you the last time I saw anything not named MSG 30 on tv. That along with "This Is It" are the only ones I've seen for quite some time now.
Don't even get me started on the lack of promotion here in the states. The only reason I know about any of this is through the forums and through facebook, but I have seen ZERO ads for any of this BAD 25 stuff. Most people in the states that don't follow MJ like most of us, have no idea about any of this and certainly don't know anything about a DVD. I remember when the Dangerous tour came out on DVD here and no one had a clue.
I don't think the quality will be an issue, and without much promo going on, its not going to matter how good or bad it is if no one knows about it. The BIG thing I think this concert has going for it is that it is unedited. And I hope that the crowd shots are limited, because that was the biggest complaint I've always heard from causal, hardcore, and everything in between fans alike. If these two things hold up, then for me, it will become my number concert to watch.