You don't really need very much to reach top 3 imo. I think it will be in top 3. Let's hope.
But Michael's first singles didn't use to be #1's. Well in TOP 10 still. I mean at least not in UK so. I don't know why thou. Only "I Just Can't Stop Loving You" and "Black Or White" were #1's (plus "One Day In Your Life"). "Don't Stop 'Til You Get Enough" was #3, "The Girl Is Mine" was #8, "Scream" was #3, "You Rock My World" was #2...
His TOP 3 singles in UK are:
Rockin' Robin #3 (2nd single)
Don't Stop 'Til You Get Enough #3 (1st single)
She's Out Of My Life #3 (4th single)
One Day In Your Life #1 (1st single)
Billie Jean #1 (2nd single)
Beat It #3 (3rd single)
I Just Can't Stop Loving You #1 (1st single)
Bad #3 (2nd single)
The Way You Make Me Feel #3 (3rd single)
Leave Me Alone #2 (9th single, not released in the US)
[Dirty Diana was #4 (6th single). Bad's single success was pretty obvious imo after Thriller's success]
Black Or White #1 (1st single)
Remember The Time #3 (2nd single)
Heal The World #2 (6th single)
Give In To Me #2 (7th single, not released in the US)
Scream #3 (1st single)
You Are Not Alone #1 (2nd single)
Earth Song #1 (3rd single, the most successful single in the UK, was 7 weeks #1)
[Blood On The Dance Floor was also #1, but it's more easy when the album era and touring is going on.]
You Rock My World #2 (1st single)
"Why" with 3T was #2 in 1996 and "Say Say Say" with PMC was #2 in 1983, but they wasn't on his solo album and both were during his solo album era. SSS's success was pretty obvious because it was during the Thriller era and a duet with someone like PMC.
His single success since Dangerous and especially since HIStory has been averagely pretty good in the UK. But of course it needs to be promoted. For example "Cry" wasn't that much so it was only #25.